Obama relection is in real trouble - YEH!
06-15-2012, 03:23 PM
Oh and back to the original statement of this thread.
Obama is in real trouble. He and Biden have made a ton of trips to New Hampshire. The state with 4 electoral votes. That is how close they believe the election is going to be. 4 years ago, nobody gave a shit about NH.
Last measures I've seen has this election literally down to a few Ohio counties. If the economy does as I expect and the undecided voters break as they always do (66% to the challenger, 33% to the incumbent) then this election could very easily get away from Obama. Last polls are showing the Obama really screwed up in Wisconsin and there is a 70% chance he will lose that state. That was very much not the case just a couple days before I started this thread. Hell, Michigan, the state that LOVES Obama for "saving the auto industry" only has Obama +6. That is retarded close this far from election day. In the last 30 days, Obama has slipped over 7% in like voter polling. That is a fall on pace with George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter (the last two single term Presidents).
Even if Obama wins (which I think he's got a 40% chance of right now) he will not be able to do anything. The GOP only needs 4 seats in the Senate to have majority if Obama wins (3 if he loses). This is with the expectation that Snow's seat goes blue. Missouri is going to kick out ClaireBear, Nebraska will go GOP, and there are a lot of other seats that the Dems are just having to defend. The GOP only has 10-11 seats to defend and the Dems have 23.
The House will not change much from current layout. The GOP will control it but not have a supermajority.
Obama is in real trouble. He and Biden have made a ton of trips to New Hampshire. The state with 4 electoral votes. That is how close they believe the election is going to be. 4 years ago, nobody gave a shit about NH.
Last measures I've seen has this election literally down to a few Ohio counties. If the economy does as I expect and the undecided voters break as they always do (66% to the challenger, 33% to the incumbent) then this election could very easily get away from Obama. Last polls are showing the Obama really screwed up in Wisconsin and there is a 70% chance he will lose that state. That was very much not the case just a couple days before I started this thread. Hell, Michigan, the state that LOVES Obama for "saving the auto industry" only has Obama +6. That is retarded close this far from election day. In the last 30 days, Obama has slipped over 7% in like voter polling. That is a fall on pace with George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter (the last two single term Presidents).
Even if Obama wins (which I think he's got a 40% chance of right now) he will not be able to do anything. The GOP only needs 4 seats in the Senate to have majority if Obama wins (3 if he loses). This is with the expectation that Snow's seat goes blue. Missouri is going to kick out ClaireBear, Nebraska will go GOP, and there are a lot of other seats that the Dems are just having to defend. The GOP only has 10-11 seats to defend and the Dems have 23.
The House will not change much from current layout. The GOP will control it but not have a supermajority.
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Pokes28 -- AKA David in Missouri
Pokes28 -- AKA David in Missouri