Obama relection is in real trouble - YEH!
05-16-2012, 10:50 AM
I don't know how many of you really pay attention to the polling figures, etc. But Obama is in very real trouble. During the GOP primaries, he polled really well and it looked like he would probably walk away with it.
But the last couple month or so has been horrible for Obama. He got a little bump on the anniversary of OBL's death.
The only thing that keeps Obama in the running is that he's generally a likeable guy. He does seem like somebody that would be fun to have in your gang of friends. The sad part is that he's completely in over his head and he's surrounded himself by the wrong people. Even when he's done the smart thing and put together people within industries to come up with ways to help, he ignores the recommendations and pushes his own agenda.
To get back to the polling data. Right now there is only one polling service that is providing information that will matter in November. Rassmussen is the only one that uses the "likely voter" matrix. Gallup and all the others are using "registered voter" and these have proven over the last 40 years to be far less accurate. Last night they released their poll from North Carolina. Romney 51% Obama 43%. This is a critical state.
There are a few things also to consider. I think it is really safe to say that there isn't a single state that Obama lost in 2008 that he will win in 2012. With the electoral shift due to the new census, that means that Obama loses 4 votes and Romney will gain for votes before anything else changes. It takes 270 to win the Presidency. Obama won 363 which would now be 359 if he carries all the same states (he won't). So Obama can only afford to drop 89 more votes.
Just focus on the states that last time were within 10% of the popular vote:
Ohio - 4% advantage for Obama - 18 votes
Florida - 3% advantage for Obama - 29 votes
North Carolina - statistical dead heat carried by Obama - 15 votes
Virginia - 7% advantage for Obama - 13 votes
Indiana - 1% advantage for Obama - 11 votes
Colorado - 9% advantage for Obama - 9 votes
Iowa - 9% advantage for Obama - 6 votes
That is 101 votes. Romney is pretty much a lock to carry Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana. Those add up to 61 votes. That leaves Obama only wiggle room of 28 votes. So any two of the remaining states and he's toast. As of right now, Romney is polling close to even with Obama in Michigan (16 EVs) even though I really don't think he'll carry it. Romney looks to be going stronger than expected in New Hampshire (4 EVs). I also expect Nevada to be in play down the stretch (6 EVs) due to their horrible economy and their pretty high Mormon population.
Remember that there are a few other things that need to be considered. First, since the 60s when Presidential elections started making it to TV, not a single incumbent carried the majority of the undecided vote. This includes Reagan who won the biggest re-election landslide in the nation's history. If this important statistic holds true, Obama loses BIG. Second, Romney will get a HUGE bump when he picks a VP candidate. Lastly, there will be another huge bump from the GOP convention (Obama will get a little boost from his, but the party not in power always gets more of a bump).
Now this isn't to say that there won't be a misstep along the way. McCain made a ton of them from picking Palin to suspending his campaign to go vote on TARP. This time people have a better understanding of who Obama is and quite simply, he's got nowhere to hide. Obama isn't as good a speaker and his debating skills aren't particularly great. However Obama won't have a teleprompter to read from.
That is why you are seeing the Left making a lot of noise about things that aren't the economy. They want to say that Romney and the GOP have a war on women which got some traction for a couple weeks and now Romney actually is polling higher with women than Obama. Obama is taking credit for increased oil production in the US even though not a single well that is pumping is doing so from an Obama issued permit. Etc. etc.
I am not going to discount the campaign savvy nature of Obama and his team. But right now, if you are anti-Obama like I am, you have to be optimistic.
But the last couple month or so has been horrible for Obama. He got a little bump on the anniversary of OBL's death.
The only thing that keeps Obama in the running is that he's generally a likeable guy. He does seem like somebody that would be fun to have in your gang of friends. The sad part is that he's completely in over his head and he's surrounded himself by the wrong people. Even when he's done the smart thing and put together people within industries to come up with ways to help, he ignores the recommendations and pushes his own agenda.
To get back to the polling data. Right now there is only one polling service that is providing information that will matter in November. Rassmussen is the only one that uses the "likely voter" matrix. Gallup and all the others are using "registered voter" and these have proven over the last 40 years to be far less accurate. Last night they released their poll from North Carolina. Romney 51% Obama 43%. This is a critical state.
There are a few things also to consider. I think it is really safe to say that there isn't a single state that Obama lost in 2008 that he will win in 2012. With the electoral shift due to the new census, that means that Obama loses 4 votes and Romney will gain for votes before anything else changes. It takes 270 to win the Presidency. Obama won 363 which would now be 359 if he carries all the same states (he won't). So Obama can only afford to drop 89 more votes.
Just focus on the states that last time were within 10% of the popular vote:
Ohio - 4% advantage for Obama - 18 votes
Florida - 3% advantage for Obama - 29 votes
North Carolina - statistical dead heat carried by Obama - 15 votes
Virginia - 7% advantage for Obama - 13 votes
Indiana - 1% advantage for Obama - 11 votes
Colorado - 9% advantage for Obama - 9 votes
Iowa - 9% advantage for Obama - 6 votes
That is 101 votes. Romney is pretty much a lock to carry Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana. Those add up to 61 votes. That leaves Obama only wiggle room of 28 votes. So any two of the remaining states and he's toast. As of right now, Romney is polling close to even with Obama in Michigan (16 EVs) even though I really don't think he'll carry it. Romney looks to be going stronger than expected in New Hampshire (4 EVs). I also expect Nevada to be in play down the stretch (6 EVs) due to their horrible economy and their pretty high Mormon population.
Remember that there are a few other things that need to be considered. First, since the 60s when Presidential elections started making it to TV, not a single incumbent carried the majority of the undecided vote. This includes Reagan who won the biggest re-election landslide in the nation's history. If this important statistic holds true, Obama loses BIG. Second, Romney will get a HUGE bump when he picks a VP candidate. Lastly, there will be another huge bump from the GOP convention (Obama will get a little boost from his, but the party not in power always gets more of a bump).
Now this isn't to say that there won't be a misstep along the way. McCain made a ton of them from picking Palin to suspending his campaign to go vote on TARP. This time people have a better understanding of who Obama is and quite simply, he's got nowhere to hide. Obama isn't as good a speaker and his debating skills aren't particularly great. However Obama won't have a teleprompter to read from.
That is why you are seeing the Left making a lot of noise about things that aren't the economy. They want to say that Romney and the GOP have a war on women which got some traction for a couple weeks and now Romney actually is polling higher with women than Obama. Obama is taking credit for increased oil production in the US even though not a single well that is pumping is doing so from an Obama issued permit. Etc. etc.
I am not going to discount the campaign savvy nature of Obama and his team. But right now, if you are anti-Obama like I am, you have to be optimistic.
---------------------------------
Pokes28 -- AKA David in Missouri
Pokes28 -- AKA David in Missouri