Obama relection is in real trouble - YEH!

[Pokes28]

I don't know how many of you really pay attention to the polling figures, etc. But Obama is in very real trouble. During the GOP primaries, he polled really well and it looked like he would probably walk away with it.

But the last couple month or so has been horrible for Obama. He got a little bump on the anniversary of OBL's death.

The only thing that keeps Obama in the running is that he's generally a likeable guy. He does seem like somebody that would be fun to have in your gang of friends. The sad part is that he's completely in over his head and he's surrounded himself by the wrong people. Even when he's done the smart thing and put together people within industries to come up with ways to help, he ignores the recommendations and pushes his own agenda.

To get back to the polling data. Right now there is only one polling service that is providing information that will matter in November. Rassmussen is the only one that uses the "likely voter" matrix. Gallup and all the others are using "registered voter" and these have proven over the last 40 years to be far less accurate. Last night they released their poll from North Carolina. Romney 51% Obama 43%. This is a critical state.

There are a few things also to consider. I think it is really safe to say that there isn't a single state that Obama lost in 2008 that he will win in 2012. With the electoral shift due to the new census, that means that Obama loses 4 votes and Romney will gain for votes before anything else changes. It takes 270 to win the Presidency. Obama won 363 which would now be 359 if he carries all the same states (he won't). So Obama can only afford to drop 89 more votes.

Just focus on the states that last time were within 10% of the popular vote:
Ohio - 4% advantage for Obama - 18 votes
Florida - 3% advantage for Obama - 29 votes
North Carolina - statistical dead heat carried by Obama - 15 votes
Virginia - 7% advantage for Obama - 13 votes
Indiana - 1% advantage for Obama - 11 votes
Colorado - 9% advantage for Obama - 9 votes
Iowa - 9% advantage for Obama - 6 votes

That is 101 votes. Romney is pretty much a lock to carry Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana. Those add up to 61 votes. That leaves Obama only wiggle room of 28 votes. So any two of the remaining states and he's toast. As of right now, Romney is polling close to even with Obama in Michigan (16 EVs) even though I really don't think he'll carry it. Romney looks to be going stronger than expected in New Hampshire (4 EVs). I also expect Nevada to be in play down the stretch (6 EVs) due to their horrible economy and their pretty high Mormon population.

Remember that there are a few other things that need to be considered. First, since the 60s when Presidential elections started making it to TV, not a single incumbent carried the majority of the undecided vote. This includes Reagan who won the biggest re-election landslide in the nation's history. If this important statistic holds true, Obama loses BIG. Second, Romney will get a HUGE bump when he picks a VP candidate. Lastly, there will be another huge bump from the GOP convention (Obama will get a little boost from his, but the party not in power always gets more of a bump).

Now this isn't to say that there won't be a misstep along the way. McCain made a ton of them from picking Palin to suspending his campaign to go vote on TARP. This time people have a better understanding of who Obama is and quite simply, he's got nowhere to hide. Obama isn't as good a speaker and his debating skills aren't particularly great. However Obama won't have a teleprompter to read from.

That is why you are seeing the Left making a lot of noise about things that aren't the economy. They want to say that Romney and the GOP have a war on women which got some traction for a couple weeks and now Romney actually is polling higher with women than Obama. Obama is taking credit for increased oil production in the US even though not a single well that is pumping is doing so from an Obama issued permit. Etc. etc.

I am not going to discount the campaign savvy nature of Obama and his team. But right now, if you are anti-Obama like I am, you have to be optimistic.

[Joe]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Obama is not going to lose. Even Republicans don't like Mitt and I seriously doubt he's going to wind up picking someone that not either a religious, gay and woman hating nut or a boring old man that's got no other goal, but to make himself rich.

[Joe]

So what hasn't Obama done that ever other President has done in the last 30 years? People get so bent out of shape because the popular guy won. If there were no hype surrounding him when he won no one would have a problem with him.

[JDubb]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Obama is not going to lose. Even Republicans don't like Mitt and I seriously doubt he's going to wind up picking someone that not either a religious, gay and woman hating nut or a boring old man that's got no other goal, but to make himself rich.

I have to agree with you.

[Pete Nice]

I don't think Obama is going to lose, but I have been hearing the same things Pokes said on the liberal news media. I just have not had enough time to pay attention to it.

And if he wins, it is a shame. He is nothing but a credit taker, he has had little to no positive legislation during his 4 years.

Romney is a phenomenal business mind, and I think with the current state of the economy, we can all agree that getting the US business model fixed would be great for all of us. He would curb excess spending, get rid of the big government that is supporting jobs that have no purpose and might even get some work done on balancing the budget and paying debt, not fix it, but might make a small dent in it. But all people care about are the things that really don't matter, like stances on gays, women and religion. Who fucking cares about gays, women and religion rights when the country is so fucked up, and primarily when our economy is so fucked up. We need someone to fix that shit before we are all poor and the US is a third world country. And doing that has nothing to do with how you feel about gays.

[Beckster]

I hate the idea of Romney winning... Please, anyone but that guy!

[Pete Nice]

I hate Romney.

Why?

[Beckster]

I hate Romney.

Why?

He has that pompous, arrogant personality that I can't stand. He reminds me of a car salesman, not to be trusted.

I will say that I'd pick him over that male chauvinist pig, Rick Santorum, though. I want to meet that guy and punch him the face for shit he's said.

[Joe]

The 2 business majors that became President lead us into tough financial times. Look it up.

[Joe]

I hate Romney.

Why?

Oh social issues alone he's retarded.

Running a company that buys and sells companies is a little different than running a country so lets not say he's a financial genius. If he was such a genius and a patriot why hasn't he offered his great knowledge to help the country years ago?

[Pokes28]

The thing is that most Democrats don't like Obama either. Does anybody really think that there will be a great turnout from college kids like 4 years ago voting 90% for Obama? I don't. Does anybody think that Blacks will turn out in masses like they did 4 years ago? I think it will be higher than normal, but it won't be anywhere near 4 years ago. Same with other minorities.

Those things will add up in a hurry. The first thing you can look at to see that he doesn't have the base that he did 4 years ago are the empty seats. This time 4 years ago there wasn't an arena that he wouldn't fill up. Now he rarely fills places. Another thing to look at is that 4 years ago Obama got millions of small donations from people that were excited about him being President. This year, his small donations have plummeted to a point of being nearly nothing. In fact Romney gets more small donations than Obama. Obama is working the big money donors now because he's actually likely to have less money than Romney come election time. That is HUGE.

This is a world economy. The US right now has 2 positive things going for it. 1) a lot of cars are getting to a point they have to be replaced. This is increasing car sales numbers and this makes him look good in the rust belt where he gave a gazillion US tax dollars to companies who produce most of their goods outside this country. 2) the housing market is finally showing a few signs of growth. Of course this is relative. The housing market could double a few times over and still wouldn't be where it was in 2006.

There are so many more headwinds to the economy that I think will take it down. First, unemployment figures are a lie. The federal government says we are at 8.1% unemployment. However we haven't had a net positive job growth number (more jobs than new people) in a couple months and when those numbers came out, they were winter adjusted even though it was a mild winter across most of the country. So how has the % fallen? Because people are falling off the back. Once you run out of unemployment benefits, you are no longer considered unemployed. The real unemployment number is north of 16% and the underemployed is around 25%. Think those people who have watched Obama push his health agenda instead of anything to do with jobs are going to be excited to crawl out of their box and go vote for him?

The campaign of ugliness is going to hit hard. There are so many bullets in the gun of the GOP right now that this election shouldn't and might not even be close come November. Case in point - Did you know that the Obama family (not counting Barrack) has spent more taxpayer dollars traveling the world on vacations than all of the other first families combined? This is just in 3.5 years. Think the good people of this country will think that is OK when it shows up in a commercial? How about re-revving up ObamaCare and how now the CBO says it will cost 4-5 times what Obama touted just 2 years ago?

Add in what looks to be a potential for economic disaster in Europe that will hurt the US and I just don't see much chance for anything more than slight of hand economic figures.

When asked about what more could Obama do as President, I have a really long list. The problem is that both parties are quick to blame the other. There is going to be adversarial conflict between him and the GOP. He has never once. not a single time accepted anything that the GOP has presented without disaster looming. He loves to blame the do-nothing House. But the House has passed thousands of items that the Dems won't let come to the floor of the Senate. Many of which are items on Obama's "we must do these things to fix the economy" list that is now a priority for him. He had a supermajority in both the house and senate his first two years in office. What did he accomplish? A health care bill that even his own doctor says is bad on every level.

I'm not a huge fan of Romney either. He's easy to dislike. However I'll take a guy that has actually done something in this life over an inept or worse guy like Obama.

[Beckster]

It all goes past the buffons running for Pres. The parties have gone haywire ikn their division and don't seem to be open to any compromises at all. That's what needs to end / change..

[Joe]

It's clear Pokes doesn't watch MSNBC.....

[Pete Nice]

I hate Romney.

Why?

Oh social issues alone he's retarded.

Running a company that buys and sells companies is a little different than running a country so lets not say he's a financial genius. If he was such a genius and a patriot why hasn't he offered his great knowledge to help the country years ago?

He was busy turning companies around from the pits to profit.

[Joe]

I hate Romney.

Why?

Oh social issues alone he's retarded.

Running a company that buys and sells companies is a little different than running a country so lets not say he's a financial genius. If he was such a genius and a patriot why hasn't he offered his great knowledge to help the country years ago?

He was busy turning companies around from the pits to profit.

And dissolving them leaving people out of work.